Political returns to ad hoc farm payments?

This paper investigates the extent to which ad hoc farm payments made under the Market Facilitation Program (MFP) and the Coronavirus Food Assistance Program (CFAP) affected voting patterns in the 2020 Presidential Election. MFP and CFAP payments were historically unique not only in terms of their magnitude, but also because they were authorized almost entirely by the incumbent Administration of President Donald Trump without direct Congressional authorization or appropriation. Our results indicate that these payments did influence county‐level voting outcomes. The observed response is driven almost exclusively by increased turnout among Trump supporters—we do not observe evidence that ad hoc payments generated widespread "vote switching” away from the Democratic or third‐party candidates and toward Trump. We find the MFP and CFAP programs generated 677,512 votes for Republican candidate Trump in the 2020 Presidential Election with an estimated cost‐per‐vote‐gained of $66,124. These votes induced by ad hoc farm payments were insufficient to change electoral college outcomes in any U.S. state.

Disentangling Short-Run COVID-19 Price Impact Pathways in the US Corn Market

Despite this focus on pandemic-related supply chain disruptions, fewer empirical studies have sought to isolate short-term price impacts in food and nonfood agricultural commodity markets.1 Understanding the drivers of short-term commodity price impacts is critical to understanding future susceptibility to major market shocks and to informing policies related to shock mitigation. Declines in ethanol production reached an estimated 2 billion gallons lost from March to November 2020, leading to a corresponding decline of 700 million bushels of corn usage and a loss of billions of dollars of ethanol producer surplus (Renewable Fuels Association, 2020b;Schmitz, Moss, and Schmitz, 2020). Increases in corn-based ethanol production that started in 2005 have linked agricultural commodity prices and energy markets as US ethanol production increased rapidly from 3.9 billion gallons in 2005 to 13.3 billion by 2010 and 15.8 billion by 2019 (Chakravorty, Hubert, and Nøstbakken, 2009;Wright, 2011;Roberts and Schlenker, 2013;Asgari, Saghaian, and Reed, 2020;US Department of Agriculture, 2021). Given that over 90% of US ethanol is used in mixtures of E10 gasoline and the US market reached a 10% "blend wall" in 2016, any reduction in gasoline use will cause proportional decreases in ethanol use (US Energy Information Administrationa, 2020;US Department of Agriculture, 2021).

The effectiveness of financial incentives for COVID-19 vaccination: A systematic review.

Financial incentives are a controversial strategy for increasing vaccination. In this systematic review, we evaluated: 1) the effects of incentives on COVID-19 vaccinations; 2) whether effects differed based on study outcome, study design, incentive type and timing, or sample sociodemographic characteristics; and 3) the cost of incentives per additional vaccine administered. We searched PubMed, EMBASE, Scopus, and Econlit up to March 2022 for terms related to COVID, vaccines, and financial incentives, and identified 38 peer-reviewed, quantitative studies. Independent raters extracted study data and evaluated study quality. Studies examined the impact of financial incentives on COVID-19 vaccine uptake (k = 18), related psychological outcomes (e.g., vaccine intentions, k = 19), or both types of outcomes. For studies of vaccine uptake, none found that financial incentives had a negative effect on uptake, and most rigorous studies found that incentives had a positive effect on uptake. By contrast, studies of vaccine intentions were inconclusive. While three studies concluded that incentives may negatively impact vaccine intentions for some individuals, they had methodological limitations. Study outcomes (uptake versus intentions) and study design (experimental versus observational frameworks) appeared to influence results more than incentive type or timing. Additionally, income and political affiliation may moderate responses to incentives. Most studies evaluating cost per additional vaccine administered found that they ranged from $49-75. Overall, fears about financial incentives decreasing COVID-19 vaccine uptake are not supported by the evidence. Financial incentives likely increase COVID-19 vaccine uptake. While these increases appear to be small, they may be meaningful across populations. Registration: PROSPERO, CRD42022316086 (https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?ID=CRD42022316086).

Political returns to ad hoc farm payments?

This paper investigates the extent to which ad hoc farm payments made under the Market Facilitation Program (MFP) and the Coronavirus Food Assistance Program (CFAP) affected voting patterns in the 2020 Presidential Election. MFP and CFAP payments were historically unique not only in terms of their magnitude, but also because they were authorized almost entirely by the incumbent Administration of President Donald Trump without direct Congressional authorization or appropriation. Our results indicate that these payments did influence county-level voting outcomes. The observed response is driven almost exclusively by increased turnout among Trump supporters-we do not observe evidence that ad hoc payments generated widespread "vote switching" away from the Democratic or third-party candidates and toward Trump. We find the MFP and CFAP programs generated 677,512 votes for Republican candidate Trump in the 2020 Presidential Election with an estimated cost-per-vote-gained of $66,124. These votes induced by ad hoc farm payments were insufficient to change electoral college outcomes in any U.S. state.

Food retailer response to price gouging litigation

Price gouging laws are designed to protect consumers from skyrocketing prices, but are they beneficial in practice? In this research, we analyze food retailers' response to widespread price gouging litigation for table eggs at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Our results suggest that price gouging litigation led to a dramatic change in US food retailer behavior, which persisted long after the resolution of many of these legal disputes. Major grocery retail chains responded to price gouging litigation by announcing price freezes on thousands of staple products. By rigidly adhering to pre-pandemic price levels for eggs, we find that retailer response led to a breakdown in the historic dynamic equilibrium relationship between egg prices and the costs of major inputs. At a time when the cost of egg production increased sharply, we find that retailers chose to reduce their purchases and price promotions for eggs rather than raise prices. This suggests that—in response to price gouging litigation—food retailers are willing to accept empty shelves in lieu of increasing prices. © 2023 Agricultural & Applied Economics Association.

Does Timing of Smoking Cessation Have an Impact on Covid-19 Outcomes?

INTRODUCTION: The relationship between smoking and increased morbidity/mortality with COVID19 is well documented;however, there is little data on the relationship between former smokers (FS) and COVID19. Risk stratification of FS is dependent on years since smoking cessation (SC). We conducted a study to determine, if years since SC influenced COVID19 outcomes. METHOD(S): A retrospective cohort study at a single institution. Inclusion criteria: age >= 18 and admitted to the hospital from Jan 2020 to Nov 2021 for COVID19. Patients were divided into two categories;SC < 15 years, and SC > 15 years. The primary outcome was mortality, with secondary outcomes: requirement of nasal cannula (NC), NIV, and mechanical ventilation (MCV). Odds ratios (OR) were calculated for all outcomes. Post-hoc age-adjusted odds ratios (AOR) for age < 75, were calculated for all outcomes. Mortality data was collected on all patients, and OR were calculated between FS, smokers (CS), and non-smokers (NS). RESULT(S): The total number of patients was 608 with 256 being FS, 308 non-smokers, 30 CS, and 14 unknown smoking status. The mean age of FS was 70. There were 154 males (60%) 102 females (40%). Total FS < 75 was 152. Obesity rates were 64.1% and 67.6%, T2DM (Diabetes Mellitus) rates were 34.3% and 59.5% in SC < 15 and SC > 15, respectively. There was no difference in mortality between the two groups, OR (OR 0.81, CI 0.46-1.40, p=0.45) and AOR (AOR 0.79, 0.37-1.69, p=0.54). There was an increased risk of MCV for the SC < 15 group (OR 2.1, CI 1.02-4.57, p=0.04). AOR did not replicate this trend. There was no difference in patients requiring NC (AOR 1.38, CI 0.70-2.74, p=0.36) or MCV (AOR 1.65, CL 0.69- 3.91, p=0.25) between the two groups. SC < 15 had lower rates of NIV (AOR 0.36, CI 0.15-0.90, p=0.029). There was no difference in mortality between FS and CS (OR 1.69, CI 0.70-4.19, p=0.24). The FS group had higher rates of mortality than NS (OR 1.43, CI 1.00-2.05, p=0.048). CONCLUSION(S): Regardless of the timing of SC, FS have the same mortality and MCV rates with COVID19. High comorbidity burden was noted in both population groups, with the SC > 15 group having higher rates of T2DM. Further studies are needed to determine the full effect of SC on COVID19 outcomes, including effect of pack years.

Food retailer response to price gouging litigation

Price gouging laws are designed to protect consumers from skyrocketing prices, but are they beneficial in practice? In this research, we analyze food retailers' response to widespread price gouging litigation for table eggs at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Our results suggest that price gouging litigation led to a dramatic change in US food retailer behavior, which persisted long after the resolution of many of these legal disputes. Major grocery retail chains responded to price gouging litigation by announcing price freezes on thousands of staple products. By rigidly adhering to pre-pandemic price levels for eggs, we find that retailer response led to a breakdown in the historic dynamic equilibrium relationship between egg prices and the costs of major inputs. At a time when the cost of egg production increased sharply, we find that retailers chose to reduce their purchases and price promotions for eggs rather than raise prices. This suggests that—in response to price gouging litigation—food retailers are willing to accept empty shelves in lieu of increasing prices. © 2023 Agricultural & Applied Economics Association.

Leveraging meatpacking ownership concentration and community centrality to improve disease resiliency

The U.S. meat processing sector has been subject to amplified scrutiny after workers exhibited disproportionately high rates of COVID-19 infections and deaths. In response, Tyson Foods-one of the largest meat packers in the country-mandated that its employees be vaccinated against COVID-19 by November 1, 2021. In this paper, we investigate the impact that the Tyson vaccine mandate had on vaccine uptake, infection rates, and deaths in counties where Tyson processing facilities are located. We find that the mandate resulted in approximately 35,000 additional vaccinations. The resultant vaccine uptake avoided 98 COVID-19 infections per day and nearly 75 COVID-19-related deaths;the associated public health savings total $45.4 million. Employee health-related interventions at the corporate level can leverage industry ownership concentration and the centrality of packing operations in host communities to improve health outcomes and disease resiliency well beyond the packing operations.

Comparative effectiveness of mandates and financial policies targeting COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy: A randomized, controlled survey experiment.

Experts debate whether COVID-19 vaccine mandates or financial incentives will reduce, rather than increase, interest in vaccination. Among 3,698 unvaccinated U.S. residents, we conducted a randomized, controlled survey-embedded experiment to estimate the absolute and relative psychological effects of vaccine policies specifying: mandates by employers or airlines, bars, and restaurants; lotteries for $1 million, $200,000, or $100,000; guaranteed cash for $1000, $200, or $100; and $1,000 as either a tax credit or penalty. Vaccine intention -the study outcome- predicts uptake and provides insight into the psychological mechanism that is most proximal to behavior (i.e., vaccination). Compared to controls, those who learned about the $1,000 cash reward policy were 17.1 (±5.3)% more likely to want vaccination. Employer mandates are more promising than other mandate policies (8.6 [+/- 7.4]% vs. 1.4 [+/- 6.0]%). The full results suggest that neither mandates nor financial incentives are likely to have counterproductive psychological effects. These policies are not mutually exclusive and, if implemented well, they may increase vaccine uptake.

Are vaccine lotteries worth the money?

This research evaluates the effects of the twelve statewide vaccine lottery schemes that were announced as of June 7, 2021 on state vaccination rates. We construct a dataset that matches information on the timing and location of these lotteries with daily, county-level data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control (CDC) on the cumulative number of people who have received at least one dose of an emergency-authorized Covid-19 vaccine. We find that 10 of the 12 statewide lotteries studied (i.e., all but Arkansas and California) generated a positive, statistically significant, and economically meaningful impact on vaccine uptake after thirty days. On average, the cost per marginal vaccination across these programs was approximately $55.

Analysis of characteristics and meteorological causes of surface ozone pollution in Chengdu during the COVID-19 epidemic

Affected by the COVID-19 epidemic, a series of lockdown control measures adopted by various regions have reduced the emission intensity of air pollutants. Taking Chengdu as an example, this study analyzed the meteorological conditions and pollution concentration characteristics in the first half of 2020 and focused on a detailed analysis of variations in ozone (O3) concentration. The results showed that: ①Compared with 2019, except for O3, all five pollutants in Chengdu showed a decreased trend, and the concentrations of NO2, CO, SO2, PM10 and PM2.5 decreased by 13.60%, 8.96%, 6.30%, 4.56%, 1.80%, respectively. On the contrary, O3 concentration increased abnormally, with the largest increase in February (35.1%) and May (36.1%). ②During the first half of 2020, the high O3 concentration level appeared earlier than in previous years (2015-2019). Meteorological conditions were more supportive to the generation of O3 also. The geopotential heights of 100 hPa and 500 hPa showed positive anomalies, the temperature and sunshine duration was higher than in previous years, and the relative humidity as well as precipitation were lower with a quiet breeze. ③The O3 formation process lasted a long time from April 25th to May 6th, mainly due to the increased emissions of O3 precursors during this period and the relatively stable weather situation, which kept the Chengdu area exposed to unfavorable weather conditions of high temperature (average temperature>30℃), low humidity (40%~60%), and quiet breeze (1.3 m•s-1) for a long time. The backward trajectories and potential sources of air pollution showed that the air quality was affected by the short-distance transportation of high-polluted air masses from the East of Chengdu and southern Sichuan. © 2021, Science Press. All right reserved.

Are vaccine lotteries worth the money?

This research evaluates the effects of the twelve statewide vaccine lottery schemes that were announced as of June 7, 2021 on state vaccination rates. We construct a dataset that matches information on the timing and location of these lotteries with daily, county-level data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control (CDC) on the cumulative number of people who have received at least one dose of an emergency-authorized Covid-19 vaccine. We find that 10 of the 12 statewide lotteries studied (i.e., all but Arkansas and California) generated a positive, statistically significant, and economically meaningful impact on vaccine uptake after thirty days. On average, the cost per marginal vaccination across these programs was approximately $55.

COVID-19 morbidity and mortality in U.S. meatpacking counties.

In this paper, we investigate the extent to which the presence of a large meatpacking (i.e., beef, pork, and broiler chicken) plant has affected county-level COVID-19 transmission dynamics. We find that-within 150 days after emergence of COVID-19 in a given county-the presence of a large beef packing facility increases per capita infection rates by 110%, relative to comparable counties without meatpacking plants. Large pork and chicken processing facilities increase transmission rates by 160% and 20%, respectively. While the presence of this type of industrial agricultural facility is shown to exacerbate initial disease transmission affecting large numbers of individuals in the community, over time daily case rates converge such that rates observed in meatpacking- and non-meatpacking counties become similar. In aggregate, results suggest that 334 thousand COVID-19 infections are attributable to meatpacking plants in the U.S. with associated mortality and morbidity costs totaling more than $11.2 billion.

Unscrambling U.S. egg supply chains amid COVID-19.

This article investigates how the shift from food-away-from-home and towards food-at-home at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic affected the U.S. egg industry. We find that the pandemic increased retail and farm-gate prices for table eggs by approximately 141% and 182%, respectively. In contrast, prices for breaking stock eggs-which are primarily used in foodservice and restaurants-fell by 67%. On April 3, 2020, the FDA responded by issuing temporary exemptions from certain food safety standards for breaking stock egg producers seeking to sell into the retail table egg market. We find that this regulatory change rapidly pushed retail, farm-gate, and breaking stock prices towards their long-run pre-pandemic equilibrium dynamics. The pandemic reduced premiums for credence attributes, including cage-free, vegetarian-fed, and organic eggs, by as much as 34%. These premiums did not fully recover following the return to more "normal" price dynamics, possibly signaling that willingness-to-pay for animal welfare and environmental sustainability have fallen as consumers seek to meet basic needs during the pandemic. Finally, in spite of widespread claims of price gouging, we do not find that the pandemic (or the subsequent FDA regulatory changes) had a meaningful impact on the marketing margin for table eggs sold at grocery stores.

The Razor's Edge of “Essential” Labor in Food and Agriculture

In the midst of a pandemic, falling on one side or the other of the cruel “razor's edge” of the “essential” and “nonessential” labor distinction can mean the difference between infection versus safety and, on the other hand, continued earnings versus unemployment. This article synthesizes relevant research from a variety of disciplines to explore the implications of the essentiality distinction as a “second-best” policy instrument. We identify ways to improve the equity and efficiency of the distinction as a second-best policy tool and consider potential ways to look beyond essentialness for future economic policy responses to pandemics.

Indemnifying precaution: economic insights for regulation of a highly infectious disease.

Economic insights are powerful for understanding the challenge of managing a highly infectious disease, such as COVID-19, through behavioral precautions including social distancing. One problem is a form of moral hazard, which arises when some individuals face less personal risk of harm or bear greater personal costs of taking precautions. Without legal intervention, some individuals will see socially risky behaviors as personally less costly than socially beneficial behaviors, a balance that makes those beneficial behaviors unsustainable. For insights, we review health insurance moral hazard, agricultural infectious disease policy, and deterrence theory, but find that classic enforcement strategies of punishing noncompliant people are stymied. One mechanism is for policymakers to indemnify individuals for losses associated with taking those socially desirable behaviors to reduce the spread. We develop a coherent approach for doing so, based on conditional cash payments and precommitments by citizens, which may also be reinforced by social norms.